Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) at the University of Cape Town provides expertise for analysis of climate data and tsetse fly population dynamics

April 18th, 2017

In partnership with the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), University of Stellenbosch, Lisa van Aardenne and co-workers at the Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) at the University of Cape Town conducted analysis and modelling of climate data for the WHO-funded project: Human African Trypanosomiasis: alleviating the effects of climate change through understanding human-vector-parasite interactions.

The team used meteorological records from the Rekomitjie Research Station in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe to conduct historical climate analysis, focusing on the variables of relevance to tsetse fly populations. The analysis concluded that within the Zambezi Valley temperatures have increased, especially during the warmest part of the year, and that this increase is very likely to continue into the future. The increasing temperatures have already had a negative impact on the tsetse fly population size and the projected warming in the Zambezi Valley may eventually result in the local extinction of tsetse flies in that area. The cooler areas higher up the escarpment may, as the result of climate change, become more favourable to tsetse flies by the end of the century.

This work provides a clear example of where climate change may have a direct influence on the distribution and size of an important disease-carrying insect in Africa. You can view the full report on the analysis of the Rekomitjie Research Station climate data, written by Lisa van Aardenne, Piotr Wolski and Chris Jack of the Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG), University of Cape Town, here.

Projected climatology in the number of days with mean temperatures between 16-32° C by the end of the century under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. Climatology presented as the mean for the future period 2080-2099. The top left panel presents the observed historical climatology from the WFDEI dataset.